Since the reopening of our borders the Aruba Tourism Authority (A.T.A.) has been working on different forecasts of what could be expected on the amount of tourists visiting our destination. The projection for 2021 is a very optimistic, conservative and cautious one.
For 2020 there were three forecasts: Optimistically seen the year would have ended with a 40 % recovery of the total visitors compared to 2019 and in the conservative forecast it would result into a 30 % recovery. In the worst case scenario a 20 % recovery was foreseen. The results for 2020 are known by now and you can see that Aruba recovered a 33% of the total visitors compared to 2019. Just a bit over the 30% projected percentage forecasted by the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) for the global tourism which forecasted a 70% decrease compared to 2019. Most visitors decided to postpone their trip based on the advice given worldwide to avoid travelling and stay home.
For 2021 the numbers of 2019 were taken into account to compare this and here we can see that the projections conduct to a tourism recovery for Aruba between 45 % and 60 %. Up till now Aruba is in line with the projected forecast which indicates a 50% recovery for 2021, but off course it all depends on the constantly changing situation globally.
For North America, which is one of the biggest contributors of Aruba’s tourism, it is anticipated that they will continue to be the biggest contributor with a market share of 80 %, followed by Europe and Latin America with 5 % and all other countries and islands with a 3 % market share.
For the cautious scenario a recovery of 45 % is projected which is a total of 515.190 visitors for 2021 and for the optimistic scenario is a 60 % recovery projected which is a total of 658,184 visitors for 2021.
There are three Key Indicators for 2021: Projections for the recovery of Cruise Tourism is between 25 % and 50 % for 2021 compared to 2019. The so called Tourism Credits is expected to have a recovery of 45 % to 60 % compared to 2019 and the Average Daily Rates (ADR) lead to a grade of recovery of 75 % compared to 2019.
It is important to remark that the recovery of Aruba’s Tourism will not go to normality for now, the recovery will happen in stages in 2021. The utmost is being done for the speed recovery but caution and good behavior of each and every one is needed seeing that the virus is still around.
The situation is and will remain changing. Aruba opened 2021 with a lockdown of the United Kingdom with the consequences of cancellations of the Non-Stop flights, which started in December 2020. Also, more and more countries are requiring a negative test result prior departure of our visitors back to their country. These restrictions are limiting our visitors in their travels. To our main contributor which is North America the amount of increasing Covid-19 cases is a big challenge and the concerned government is taking measurements which make travelling more and more difficult.
Obviously the main focus is on the vaccine for a relief. But, this also will take some time. Besides all this, the desire of travelling in our tourists remains strong amid all measurements implemented.
A.T.A. would like to thank all their partners and organizations working untiringly for Aruba’s tourism recovery. Collective and individual responsibility is of main importance to ensure the recovery of tourism and the economy of Aruba. Adhering to all protocols stated by all departments concerned is everyone’s responsibility only then we will be able to overcome this virus and help Aruba’s economy flourish again.